Upset at the box office! Ice Age: Dawn of the Dinosaurs (the third installment in the Ice Age franchise) beat out both Public Enemies and Transformers: ROTF yesterday during its (and PE's) first day in theaters. Ice Age 3 brought in $14 million, T2 added another $10 million to its already monstrous take, and Public Enemies ka-chinged a total of $8 million. Call it pent-up demand for a true family-friendly film, say it's all about the public's love of woolly mammoths (I have no proof of this, but really, who doesn't adore those big hairy guys?), attribute it to the ongoing fascination with 3-D movies (Roger Ebert raved about its effects), chalk this victory up to whatever you'd like, but I dare say the Fourth of July weekend's battle for ticket sales just got a lot more interesting. Industry analysts project a toss-up between Ice Age 3 and Transformers: ROTF at this point -- a scenario I don't believe anyone would've anticipated just a few days ago.
But when you think about it, since Transformers 2 has made about $450 million worldwide to date, everyone who wanted to see it probably already has (at least once) and is now ready to move on to what's new. And the PG-rated Ice Age 3 a more likely pick than the R-rated Public Enemies for families who have extra time on their hands and are seeking the cool comfort of the movie theater over the long weekend. Plus, you know, there's dinosaurs in Ice Age 3! Woolly mammoths AND dinosaurs! That's a winning combo if I've ever heard of one.
It will be VERY interesting this weekend to see how far Transformers' earnings drop from last weekend. The industry wags are predicting a 50% drop, but that may be revised in light of yesterday's Ice Age win.
If Transformers earns about $50 million this weekend, then that's in line with expectations and all is okay in Giant Robot Land. But if it loses 65% or even 75% of it's first weekend haul (not counting those massive first three days from last week that doubled its overall numbers)--in other words, if T-Former's holiday weekend take is somewhere between $25 and $35 million, then clearly Bay and Co. have redefined the notion of striking hard and fast, making ALL your money the first week, then getting out as bad word of mouth spreads.
My prediction? T-Formers will make about $40 million, lose to Ice Age by a hair--enough to be considered an "upset," but not enough to truly tarnish the chrome on Optimus Prime.
(And yes, I realize the irony of being obsessed with box-office number, even though I don't believe they connote quality. But it's like reading baseball box scores: the stats are almost as fun as the games.)
Posted by: Locke Peterseim | July 02, 2009 at 01:12 PM